Analysing the Effect of Climate Change Variability on Livestock Productivity in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate change variability on livestock productivity in Nigeria, employing a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to analyze time-series data from 1990 to 2023. The results reveal a significant asymmetry in the effects of climatic variables, particularly rainfall and temperature, on livestock production. Positive changes in rainfall were found to enhance livestock output, whereas negative changes significantly reduced productivity, especially during periods of drought. Similarly, temperature variations, both positive and negative, had detrimental effects on livestock productivity due to heat stress and forage quality deterioration. The findings underscore the lagged effects of climatic factors, revealing that past variations in rainfall and temperature exert more profound impacts than current changes. These results highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including climate-resilient livestock systems, improved water and pasture management. This study recommends the adoption of drought-resilient livestock breeds to mitigate productivity losses in arid regions, alongside strengthening water and forage resource management through rainwater harvesting and sustainable rangeland practices among others.

Keywords: Climate change, Livestock, Livestock Productivity, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model.

JEL Classification: Q10, Q54, C22, O13, Q18, C50

DOI: 10.7176/JESD/16-2-01

Publication date: March 30th 2025