Monetary Policy and Output-inflation Volatility Interaction in Nigeria: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH-M Model

Abstract

Abstract:

This article reports on a recent study that applies bivariate GARCH methodology to investigate the existence of a tradeoff between output growth and inflation variability in Nigeria and to ascertain the impact of monetary policy regime changes (from direct control regime to indirect or market based regime) on the nature of the volatility tradeoffs. Investigations reveal the existence of a short run tradeoff relationship between output growth and inflation within and across both regimes. However, no strong evidence of long run volatility relationship could be established. Our results further reveal that regime changes affected the magnitude of policy effects on output and inflation. Monetary policy had a stronger effect on output growth than on price stability during the period of direct control while it has a much larger impact on inflation during the current period of market-based regime. Also volatility of output and inflation became more persistent during the period of indirect control.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Output-Inflation Volatility, Bivariate GARCH-M Model