Modelling Delay of Road Construction Projects in 'No Funding-Stress' Scenario using Ordinal Logistic Regression Approach

Abstract

The study examined critical delay causative factors impacting the delivery of road projects in 'no funding stress' scenario and modelled the variables as a procedural step towards capturing and managing their occurrence in such a scenario. The study adopted a quantitative descriptive approach, which was based on a questionnaire survey. A total of thirty-six organisations that were involved in the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) road projects in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria constituted the study population. These were distributed as; 8 client organisations, 13 consulting organisations, and 15 contracting organisations. A total enumeration of the 36 organizations enabled 153 professionals distributed as; 33 quantity surveyors and 120 civil/structural engineers to be sampled. Inferential statistics, rating weighted agreement (RWA), and impact weighting (IW) were employed to isolate the critical factors. Ordinal logistic regression (OLR) was used to model the delay, which was validated using a split-quarter cross-validation method. Twenty-nine critical causative factors were derived with the top three as; mobilization delay, interference by political leader, and high rate of inflation. Ordinary Logistic Regression enabled 11 variables, which had Wald's statistic significant at a p-value ≤ 0.25 to be selected among the 29 critical causative factors for developing a model that predicts project delay quantum in 'no funding stress' scenario. The study provided implications both for project management and government policy development. In the first place, empirical evidence provided is suitable for managing road project delivery in a 'no funding stress' scenario through the development of metrics for improvement of time performance. Most importantly, the study modelled the time variables in this scenario to assist in predicting project delay quantum from inception. The findings also provide implications for government policy response, which would guide the delivery of regional intervention projects. Empirical evidence is provided on road project delivery with special funding intervention that results in a 'no funding stress' scenario. Modelling delay occurrence in such a scenario extends the quantitative approach to the body of knowledge on time performance management in road project delivery.

Keywords: Critical impact factors, delay, Niger Delta Region, ordinal logistic regression, Pareto principle, road construction projects.

DOI: 10.7176/CER/12-9-07

Publication date:September 30th 2020