Modeling Trends of Temperature Effects on Water Level of Rivers in N/E Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates temperature variabilities in N/E Nigeria using observations of temperature (⁰C) from 6 stations from 1981-2010 (30years). Trends in annual and seasonal temperature series were modeled using Mann-Kendall test. The analysis revealed  significantly higher (P<0.01) in April compare to all the other months with overall  mean temperature ranged between 20.2 - 31.8⁰C among all the locations  over months and years. There was significant increase of 0.38⁰C (positive trend) in temperature in all studied area except Taraba. Each degree rise of temperature of 0.74⁰C (Gombe), 0.12⁰C (Adamawa), 0.38⁰C (Yobe), 0.53⁰C (Borno) and 0,69⁰C (Bauchi) and decrease 2.05⁰C (Taraba) lead to a reduction and increase in water level by 78.77, 19,10, 74.26, 79.62, 20.65 and 209.29 mm  respectively. Analyses of decadal trends in the time series further suggest a sequence of alternately decreasing and increasing trends in mean annual temperature in Nigeria during the study period.

Keywords: Modeling, Temperature, Water Level, Rivers, N/E Nigeria.