Land Use Change and Determinants of Agricultural Land Conversion Due to Urbanization: Case of Smallholder Farmers in Njoro Sub-County, Kenya

Abstract

Urbanization process stands out amongst the most imperative drivers of financial, physical and societal change. However, the drivers of agricultural land conversion due to urbanization in Africa specifically, Njoro Sub-County in Kenya are still not clear. This paper looks at the factors impacting decision to convert land used for agricultural purposes and the degree of conversion to non-agricultural purposes. Data for this study was collected from 384 randomly selected smallholder farmers, by the use of semi-structured questionnaires and key witness interviews. The study employed Craggit (Double-Hurdle Model) to examine the drivers of conversion and analyze the amount of land converted. The results from the study show that decision to convert and extent of land conversion were influenced by; age, gender, education, productive farm assets, distance to town, tenure system, risk attitude, soil fertility and land rented out. The study concluded that despite the threat urbanization has on food security, much of peri-urban agricultural land is still being converted to non-agrarian purposes. This study recommends coherent policies that take into account farmer socio-economic and bio-physical characteristics that could stimulate behavioral change towards land conversion. This could be complemented by adopting strategies that align all shareholders from different segments of the economy, provide secure rights to land and incentivize solutions for sustainable agriculture by making agribusiness more competitive.

Keywords: Drivers, urbanization, agricultural land conversion, smallholder, Craggit model