Risks Monitoring Framework for Sustainability of Externally Funded Food Security Projects in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands

Abstract

Climate-related risks such as droughts, floods, pest and disease outbreaks have been causing severe disruptions to food security projects, posing significant project risks. The study examined how risk monitoring (tracking Key Performance Indicators- KPIs, conducting trend analysis, and implementing risk reporting) influence sustainability of food security projects in Kenya’s ASALs, focusing on crop and livestock production. Using Prospect theory and Theory of change, the study employed a correlational research design with 347 targeted respondents from 11 ASAL counties and a final sample of 182 from 6 counties: Tana River, Makueni, Kitui, Kilifi, Kwale, and Narok. Data collection methods included key informant interviews, surveys, observations, and photography. Findings reveal frequent risks including delayed project fund disbursements, low technology adoption, climatic variability (low rainfall, pests and diseases), poor farming skills and high production costs. The findings revealed that tracking KPIs (M = 4.548, SD = 0.655), analyzing trend analysis (M = 4.096, SD = 0.800), and implementing risk plans (M = 4.163, SD = 0.891) significantly enhanced project sustainability. The study also highlighted that risk monitoring reduces project costs, improves timely implementation (M = 4.370, SD = 0.595), increases agricultural productivity (M = 4.563, SD = 0.568), and increases stakeholder satisfaction (M = 4.430, SD = 0.641). Correlation analysis confirmed a strong positive relationship between risk monitoring and project sustainability (r = 0.873, p = 0.000), while regression analysis (adjusted R-squared = 0.578), supported by suggesting that 57.8% of the variance in Project sustainability was explained by risk monitoring. Value chains included livestock (e.g. dairy cows, local chicken, apiculture), and high-value crops like green grams, cashew nuts and mangoes. The study recommended adoption of structured KPI tracking, digital tools for trend analysis, and risk reporting systems, supported by robust M&E frameworks, policy reforms, stakeholder participation, and capacity building to enhance sustainability.

Key words: Risk Monitoring, Project Sustainability, Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E).

DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/18-4-07

Publication date: April 30^th 2026