Oil Dependence and External Vulnerability in CEMAC: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Economic Diversification

Abstract

This paper examines oil dependence in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) from 2015 to 2024, focusing on six dimensions: the share of oil in GDP, export composition, fiscal reliance, foreign direct investment, international reserves, and growth volatility, along with governance and subsidy management. The findings reveal significant contrasts: Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Congo remain highly dependent on hydrocarbons; Chad combines similar vulnerability with heavy security expenditures; Cameroon demonstrates relative resilience through agro-industrial diversification; and the Central African Republic, though not oil-dependent, illustrates how weak institutions and political instability create comparable fragility. The discussion highlights that resource endowment alone does not determine outcomes—governance, institutions, and historical trajectories are equally decisive. The study concludes that diversification in CEMAC is both an economic necessity and a political-institutional imperative, requiring four strategic pillars: fiscal reform and stabilization, productive diversification, institutional strengthening, and deeper regional integration supported by human capital and innovation.

Keywords: Oil dependence, Economic diversification, Governance, Institutions, External vulnerability, CEMAC, Fiscal reforms

DOI: 10.7176/DCS/15-2-08

Publication date: November 30^th 2025