The End of International Migration? The Case of North America

Abstract

Although there are exceptions (forced migration and retirement migration, for example), international migration is largely driven by people of working age. Population forecasts to the year 2100 show that the numbers of people of working age (20-64) will diminish in North America (Canada, Mexico, and the United States), and dramatically diminish among those of the younger working ages (20-34 and 35-44). Underlying this expectation is the fact that North America, like the world as a whole, will have completed the demographic transition or be very close to completing it within 75 years, which means this region of the world  will have an aged population. This process will diminish the number of people prone to migrate across national borders. Given expected population ageing trends and no dramatic reversals in fertility levels, the continued diminishment of the age-related sources of migration may well lead to the result that international migration will not play much  of a role as a component of national population change after the year 2100. This paper examines this possible outcome in the form of a case study of North America that examines data (population projections by age from 2025 to 2050 and 2100) and graphs (population pyramids for 2025, 2050, and 2100) in terms of the expected changes in the working age population in the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 2025. We conclude with a discussion and suggest that the effect of population ageing on international migration flows deserves more than the scant attention it has received.

Keywords: International Migration, North America, ageing

DOI: 10.7176/RHSS/15-8-01

Publication date:September 30th 2025