Homo sapiens and a Sixth Mass Extinction Event

Abstract

While we likely bear more than a small level of responsibility for the possibility of a sixth mass extinction event and there are predictive studies on the extinction of a range of flora and fauna, Homo sapiens appears to have been overlooked. Those who do consider the extinction of our species look at it as a potential rather than a inevitable event. Studies that predict species extinction have focused on a range of flora and fauna but in regard to Homo sapiens there are, with one notable exception, no predictive studies, only considerations of possible ways this may occur. The exception believes extinction of Homo sapiens will happen in 10,000 years. We agree that extinction will happen, but we disagree on the timing. Given the decline in fertility between 2019 and 2024 and employing a probabilistic projection method in conjunction with 66% confidence intervals for the world as a whole, we find that by 2039 the world population will be between 8.4 billion and 9.0 billion; by 2139 it will be between 1.4 billion and 1.9 billion; by 2239 it will be between 4.5 million and 6.3 million. Human extinction will occur between the years 2339 and 2449, or between 314 and 424 years from now. Given its pace, our extinction may be too late for the world to avoid a sixth mass extinction event. Unlike other species, however, we would remain unique - our extinction would be due to internal rather than external circumstances.

Keywords: ARIMA, Bayes, Cohort Component Method, Cohort Change Ratios, Espenshade-Tayman Method, Evolutionary Record, Hamilton-Perry Method, International Data Base, Genetic Diversity, Natural Economy, Uncertainty