SARIMA Model for Malaria Admission Cases for Children Less Than Five Years in Kakamega County Referral Hospital

Abstract

According to (MOH, 2016), malaria has become a killer disease to children in Kakamega County. Children less than five years are the most vulnerable to malaria. Lack of forecasting using available data on malaria indicators hinders the monitoring and control of the disease. This study therefore sought to formulate Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for malaria admission cases for children less than five years in Kakamega County Referral Hospital. The objectives of the study were; to derive SARIMA model for forecasting malaria case admission for children less than five years and to use the derived SARIMA model to forecast malaria admission cases for children less than five years. Box Jenkins Methodology was used to derive SARIMA model. The appropriate model was SARIMA (0,2,2)(0,2,2)12. The study recommends this model to be used for planning and designing an effective control strategy for this category of children at the County level.

Keywords: SARIMA model, Box Jenkins Methodology, Forecasting, Malaria admission cases.

DOI: 10.7176/MTM/9-7-06

Publication date: July 31^st 2019