Framers’ Perception of Climate Change and Time-Series Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature in North-Western Ethiopia

Abstract

Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable community to climate change in Ethiopia because they are highly dependent on subsistence rain–fed agricultural production system. The aims of this study were to identify the perceptions of farmers on climate change and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in the Gondar Zuria district of northwestern Ethiopia that has been severely affected by climate change stresses. In Ethiopia, studying the time series trends of rainfall and temperature in the context of climate change is crucial. As a result, it is easy to identify and implement better climate change adaptation strategies. Primary data were collected from a randomly selected 121 sample households and purposefully selected ten key informants through questionnaires and interviews. The survey data was analyzed using SPSS software version 21, XLSTAT software and excel spreadsheet. The variability and trend analysis were conducted from downloaded Gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data from free online climate explorer Which is Global Precipitation and Climate Centre (GPCC V7) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 3.23) with 0.5 by 0.5 resolution from 1980 to 2013 respectively. Climate variable data have analyzed by using a precipitation concentration index, anomaly index, coefficient of variation and simple linear regression. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the time series trend. The result revealed that the mean maximum temperature had an increasing trend through time significantly. But the trend for mean minimum temperature showed a non-significant increasing trend during the period of 1980–2013. Whereas, the rainfall showed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend in the main rain (summer) season. While there was an inter-annual variability in the amount of Belg season rainfall and it showed an increasing trend. The result revealed that farmers perceive changes in temperature and rainfall over the past 30 years. The Gondar Zuria district is characterized by a semi-arid climate and hence, received low and erratic rainfall during the summer season. Therefore, we recommend possible adaptation strategies designed for climate change particularly rain-fed agriculture economic dependent countries should give emphasis for the increasing trend of temperature and the decreasing and unreliable nature of rainfall.

Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall, temperature, farmers perception, Gondar Zuria District

DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/90-02

Publication date: January 31^st 2023