Temperature and Rainfall Effects on Spice Crops Production and Forecasting the Production in Bangladesh: An Application of Box-Jenkins ARIMAX Model

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop the best Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with External Regressor, that is, ARIMAX model for measuring the temperature and rainfall effects on major spice crops productions in the Bangladesh and forecasting the production using the same model. Due to time sequence dataset, ARIMAX model is considered as a measuring tool of cause-effect relation among the spice crops and climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) under study. From the study, it is found that ARIMAX(2,1,2), ARIMAX(2,0,1) and ARIMAX(2,1,1) are the best model for Chili, Garlic and Ginger crop respectively. From the comparison between original series and forecasted series, it shows that these fitted model are well representative of the practical situations and both series shows the same manner indicating good forecasting.

Keywords: Temperature, Rainfall, Species Production, Forecasting, ARIMAX Model.