Comparison Of Survival Models And Estimation Of Their Parameters With Respect To Mortality in a Given Population .

Abstract

In  this  research, we consider three  different  survival models  under   the assumption  of Gompertz  model as the baseline  distribution. We compare the fitting results of the Exponential distribution , the Gompertz distribution and the Gompertz - Makeham  model in a given  population. As the human lifespan decreases, more and more people are becoming interested in mortality rates at higher ages.   The  aim  of   this  study  is  to   estimate     the  robust  and  reliable    estimates  of  level   and   trend     in   mortality   in  Homa-Bay county , Kenya  .  The purpose of this study is to find out if the population  of  Homa-Bay area in Nyanza Province fits the Gompertz model and also to compare different survival models parametrically   in  a  population. And  also  to  determine the relationship between death  rate  and  age  in the area. . Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is used to identify the best model. The expected output is that   the preferred model is the one which satisfies the characteristics of the given population.

Keywords: Gompertz distribution, Gompertz-Makeham Model , Expected life time, Force of mortality, AIC,  Stochastic process.