Modeling and Forecasting of Armed Robbery Cases in Nigeria using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models

Abstract

We have utilized a twenty-nine year crime data in Nigeria pertaining to Armed Robbery, the study proposes crime modeling and forecasting using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models, the best model were selected based on the  minimum Akaike information criteria (AIC), Bayesian information criteria(BIC), and Hannan-Quinn criteria (HQC) values and was used to make forecast. Forecasted values suggest that Armed Robbery would slightly be on the increase

Keywords: crime rate, ARIMA, armed robbery, forecasting, ACF/PACF, Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, Hannan-Quinn criteria