Prediction of The Trend of Crisis Key Factors to Support Policy Formulation of Consumption Salt Trade System in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is a net importer country of salt (NaCl), espicially for industrial salt. As consumption salt (salt consumed by household) is polytically sensitive for the country, it is determined as a strategic commodity. Government decided for being able to self sufficiency in the consumption salt.  This research is a continuation of previous work, “identification of crisis key factors using ANP method, i.e. price of salt, climate, number of salt producer (farmer), and the availability of sea salt production area”. Trend of those crisis key factors has to be predicted to support the dynamic formulation of trade system policy of consumption salt as needed. A method of decompotition time series and Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST) were used.

The decomposition method resulted a prediction of an increase trend of salt price every year, while its production tend to decrease. The area of sea salt production is predicted to fluctuate in the next ten years. Strategic policies to prevent a crisis of consumption salt in Indonesia were identified, those are: Implementing a tight control of salt import, defining a minimal salt price at farmer level, releasing the lisence and liberating the use of land for salt production, providing appropriate technology to farmer for salt production, increasing land productivity through revitalization of infrastructure in salt production areas, preventing conversion of salt production area to other utulization, and establishing a national stock of salt.

Keywords: Prediction, SAST, Crisis Key Factors, Consumption Salt Trade System